Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.444497 0.518792 0.599069 0.691944 0.796106 0.908996 1.040261
2025-03-23 0.334232 0.429901 0.541186 0.679016 0.843878 1.033455 1.266565
2025-03-30 0.234318 0.333786 0.458620 0.624095 0.834714 1.090738 1.422045
2025-04-06 0.169145 0.267953 0.401934 0.591813 0.848274 1.176531 1.621454
2025-04-13 0.119661 0.212649 0.349483 0.557115 0.854546 1.254687 1.821295
2025-04-20 0.089725 0.178914 0.321084 0.551206 0.899145 1.388594 2.108788
2025-04-27 0.065290 0.147556 0.290281 0.537097 0.930885 1.509400 2.392411
2025-05-04 0.048892 0.125508 0.270059 0.536358 0.983032 1.665689 2.742373
2025-05-11 0.036024 0.105972 0.249946 0.532588 1.030451 1.820694 3.106160
2025-05-18 0.024031 0.083273 0.218199 0.502638 1.031134 1.904599 3.372302
2025-05-25 0.015177 0.063487 0.186528 0.466300 1.015518 1.960984 3.601619
2025-06-01 0.010295 0.051749 0.168954 0.454203 1.041738 2.089049 3.956354
2025-06-08 0.006556 0.041033 0.150814 0.438644 1.062625 2.216153 4.331042
2025-06-15 0.004712 0.035849 0.145517 0.451087 1.141098 2.453557 4.912264
2025-06-22 0.002731 0.027493 0.127479 0.429085 1.146358 2.560071 5.279768
2025-06-29 0.001635 0.021971 0.115639 0.419687 1.177234 2.717903 5.751193
2025-07-06 0.000900 0.017073 0.103190 0.405284 1.194938 2.852700 6.192848
2025-07-13 0.000558 0.014474 0.098179 0.410833 1.259621 3.086013 6.831890
2025-07-20 0.000309 0.011794 0.091076 0.408211 1.304664 3.284333 7.420449
2025-07-27 0.000179 0.010037 0.087174 0.414891 1.374047 3.539380 8.134439
2025-08-03 0.000095 0.008386 0.082562 0.418003 1.435060 3.782404 8.841489
2025-08-10 0.000034 0.006188 0.072485 0.398412 1.433292 3.890720 9.292787
2025-08-17 0.000008 0.004305 0.061827 0.372335 1.409081 3.947141 9.644526